"The Politics of Bureaucratic Discretion under Populist Rule: Evidence from Italy’s Asylum System"
To what extent can populist radical right (PRR) politicians in power influence frontline bureaucrats? This paper addresses this question through the case of Italy’s asylum adjudication under Matteo Salvini (2018–2019). Within a principal–agent framework of democratic backsliding, I theorize three channels: (i) personnel control via provincial representatives; (ii) local political environments that condition how national cues land; and (iii) bureaucratic leadership within local asylum offices. Using an original 2014–2020 panel linking asylum decisions, asylum office leadership, prefect rotations, and municipal ideology; I estimate two-way fixed effects and staggered difference-in-differences models. Findings show heterogeneous political influence: PRR appointees depress approval rates where jurisdictions are not already right-leaning, and technocratic municipalities grant fewer humanitarian protections. Locally rooted presidents are more restrictive, while migration experts apply rules more formally and defensively, reflecting professionalized but cautious decision-making. Beyond advancing debates on asylum governance, the study illustrates how political authority translates into administrative behavior, offering a disaggregated account of when and why populist influence within the state fragments rather than prevails.
Full draft paper [here]
"Inequality by Design: Dual-Track Naturalization Systems and Resilience to Economic Crises" with Pedro Martín-Cadenas
How does citizenship policy influence the resilience of immigrants during economic downturns? Access to citizenship generates large inequalities in access to rights and job opportunities, influencing immigrants’ resilience to economic recessions and further shaping their integration trajectories. We study the compounded effect of citizenship laws with the 2008 economic crisis in Spain, leveraging the country's dual-track naturalization system, where most immigrants face a ten-year residency requirement to apply for citizenship, while nationals from select countries, primarily Latin American, qualify after only two years. We first document, using a shift-share instrument with municipal-level census data, an increase in citizenship acquisition among fast-track immigrants in response to the economic crisis. An analysis of cross-sectional survey data from the Basque Country (EPOE) and Spain (ENI) shows that these differentiated access to citizenship amplified the effect of the economic crisis on various indicators of economic status and social integration. Altogether, the findings show that the economic recession unveiled latent vulnerabilities among standard-track immigrants, while those in the fast-track could resort to different strategies that rely on their relatively easier access to citizenship. These findings suggest that the dual-track system contributed to diverging patterns of naturalization and social integration.
"Displacement and Political Agency: Refugee-Led Organizations in Comparative Perspective"
"Refugees as humanitarian actors: Making sense of the goals and activities of organisations led by displaced and stateless people in Europe " with Lorenzo Piccoli, Daniela Movileanu, Tae Kyeong Meixner-Yun and Ahmad Wali Ahmad Yar
"From Welfare Chauvinism to Identity Nationalism: The Evolution of Anti-Immigration Discourse in Spain’s Radical and Center Right" with Sebastián Umpiérrez de Reguero and Roberta Perna
"Governance through Discretion: Complexity in Italy’s Refugee Status Determination"